The Coming Wave: AI, Power and Our Future,by Mustafa Suleyman, is a thought-provoking exploration of the transformative potential and existential risks of artificial intelligence (AI) and other emerging technologies. As a co-founder and former head of applied AI at DeepMind, an AI company acquired by Google, Suleyman brings first-hand insight into the rapid advancements in AI and the unprecedented challenges they pose to society. The book delves into the promise and peril of AI, biotechnology, and other exponential technologies reshaping the world.
The Rise of a New Technological Era
The book begins by highlighting how AI has evolved from a niche research field to a global force capable of disrupting industries, economies, and even geopolitics. Suleyman examines the acceleration of AI capabilities, demonstrating how deep learning, neural networks, and automation are already transforming areas such as healthcare, finance, and military strategy. The book emphasises that while AI presents immense opportunities, it also introduces unpredictable consequences that could spiral beyond human control.
The Power Dynamics of AI and Emerging Technologies
Suleyman explores how AI is concentrating power in the hands of a few major players—governments, tech corporations, and influential individuals—creating vast inequalities in access and control. He discusses the geopolitical arms race in AI, where nations compete for dominance in an increasingly automated world. He warns of the potential misuse of AI in surveillance, cyber warfare, and information manipulation.
Beyond AI, the book examines breakthroughs in synthetic biology, quantum computing, and robotics, emphasising that the convergence of these fields could lead to an uncontrollable “wave” of technological advancements. He argues that without careful management, society may be unprepared to handle these transformative changes, potentially leading to economic dislocation, ethical dilemmas, and existential risks.
The Need for Containment
A central theme of the book is the urgent need for containment—strategies to ensure that AI and other powerful technologies are developed and deployed responsibly. Suleyman outlines a framework for managing technological growth without stifling innovation, acknowledging that while it is impossible to halt progress, it is crucial to establish robust governance and ethical guidelines to mitigate risks.
The Ten-Step Plan for Containment
Suleyman presents a structured ten-step plan for containing the risks associated with AI and other disruptive technologies:
1. Safety: An Apollo Programme for Technical Safety
Promote and prioritise research and development of robust AI safety measures in technological design, akin to the rigorous standards of the Apollo space programme, addressing biases in AI models and ensuring responsible deployment practices as an inherent design property of these new models.
2. Audits: Knowledge is Power; Power is Control
Implement thorough auditing mechanisms to ensure transparency and accountability—regular assessments, adversarial testing (red teaming), and external scrutiny to verify system integrity and performance.
3. Choke Points: Buy Time
Utilise strategic control points to slow down unchecked proliferation of critical technologies. For instance, enforcing export controls on essential components like advanced semiconductors can provide valuable time to develop appropriate regulatory frameworks.
4. Makers: Critics Should Build It
Encourage technologists and critics to actively participate in the creation process, integrating ethical considerations and humanistic perspectives from the outset to guide responsible innovation.
5. Businesses: Profit + Purpose
Align corporate objectives with societal well-being by adopting business models that balance profitability with ethical responsibility. Establish governance structures that prioritise transparency, accountability, and the integration of ethical guidelines.
6. Governments: Survive, Reform, Regulate
Enhance governmental capabilities to effectively monitor, understand, and regulate technological developments. This includes investing in technical expertise, establishing comprehensive oversight mechanisms, and enacting legislation that guides the ethical progression of technology.
7. Alliances: Time for Treaties
Foster international cooperation to address the global challenges posed by emerging technologies. Develop treaties and agreements that set shared standards, limit the development of certain high-risk technologies, and promote collaborative risk management.
8. Culture: Respectfully Embracing Failure
Cultivate a cultural mindset that values learning from failures and near-misses. Encourage openness and transparency in reporting and analysing technological mishaps to build resilience and improve safety standards.
9. Movements: People Power
Empower public engagement and advocacy to influence technology policies. Educate communities about the implications of emerging technologies and foster collective action to ensure that technological advancements align with societal values and needs.
10. The Narrow Path: The Only Way is Through
Acknowledge the complexity of balancing technological innovation with ethical considerations. Advocate for continuous vigilance, proactive measures, and a unified global approach to navigate the intricate landscape of emerging technologies responsibly.
A Call to Action
In the concluding chapters, Suleyman warns that failing to address the challenges of AI and emerging technologies could lead to unforeseen consequences, including loss of human agency, economic upheaval, and even existential threats. However, he notes that with the right containment strategies, AI can be harnessed to solve humanity’s most pressing challenges, such as climate change, disease eradication, and economic inequality.
The Coming Wave serves as both a cautionary tale and a roadmap for the future. Suleyman urges policymakers, scientists, business leaders, and the public to take proactive steps in shaping AI’s trajectory, ensuring that technological progress aligns with human values and safety.
Padmaja is a Research Analyst (Consultant) at PIC.